This is a bad analogy, but....I ran track at University of Oklahoma and was on a national champion relay team. I went to grad school at Oklahoma State University and taught school in Stillwater for 23 years. I felt tremendous loyalty to OU my two years there and many years after. 28 years in Stillwater has made me more a fan of OSU, even with my history at OU. (Like I said, bad analogy, but shows how loyalties can change.)
Or women democrats who now are leaning towards McCain because of Palin because she's a woman (or men because she's good looking).
It can get complicated, but there is probably a much more simple answer than we will come up with.