That is correct in my opinion also. The Battle of Whitney Lane for example seemed to have convienced Curtis that he was up against a much larger force than he really was. Rector and Roane really ran a good bluff on Curtis.
It is true Curtis did have his logistical supply problems and the Battle of St. Charles did nothing to help that. And yes had he captured Little Rock in May of 1862 he would have had his problems with getting supplied and all. But he would have also pushed the Confederates almost completely out of the State of Arkansas back to the Red River because of the drought and the lack of forage south of the Arkansas River.
And it wasn't that Curtis didn't try to capture Little Rock in 1862. I believe there are references in the O.R.'s to no less than 9 attempts, from July to November, to approach Little Rock from Helena after resuppling there during the late summer of 1862. And yes Governor Rector did move the State Government and treasury from Little Rock to Hot Springs for a period of three weeks at least during May of 1862. It seems that the arrival of the CSS Ponchartrain at Little Rock in late May prompted Rector to return the Government to Little Rock.
I believe that in fact the arrival of the Ponchartrain and the Maurepaus was in responce to Rectors threats to Davis to have Arkansas Seceed from the Confederacy and become neutral to both sides, if help was not sent and that these Gunboats were in fact a form of "Gunboat diplomacy" show of force being practised by the Confederate War Department to put down any such attempts. Just exactly what these Gunboats could have done to prevent the Arkansas legislature and Rector from seceeding from the Confederacy is unknown. But it seems that their "showing the Flag" on the Arkansas River and the arrival of T. C. Hindman to take command of the military situation cooled the secession fever in Little Rock at that time.