From Bill Shea's book I am given the opinion that while Hindman did not anticipate the federal movements well the Confederates had the high ground and therefore the tactical advantage. They did not lose that advantage during the Battle and only withdrew because of a lack of ammunitions. The battle itself was the "Draw" as Hindman was able to withdraw without complications.

However, because of the lack of supplies the Confederate were not able to accomplish their purpose of driving the Union forces out of Arkansas and were not able to secure their base at Fort Smith from attack and the federal follow up dictated the winner of the battle as being the Union. Hindman was forced to retreat to Little Rock because of the tactical situation.

The purpose of any army in the field is to control the enemies army and force him to act according your purpose. Hindman did not accomplish that purpose.