"What ifs" are sometimes fun, and those of the Red River Campaign are no exception. The possibility of Banks surrendering at Monett's Ferry was remote, primarily because many of his officers would have revolted. Taylor's army might have done more damage to the Union army there if Bee had not panicked and retreated too soon.

There is no question in my mind that, if Kirby Smith had not blundered in taking away most of Taylor's infantry, the Confederates had a real chance of forcing a surrender at Alexandria in late April or early May. With the small force he had, Taylor succeeded in cutting off supplies to Banks' forces. More troops would have allowed him to put more pressure on the largely demoralized Union army.

Another scenario might have been Banks abandoning Porter's fleet above the falls and trying to cut his way through Taylor's whole army. The destruction of the Union fleet would have been a huge victory for the Confederates.