Doyle, that's an excellent summary of the realities facing Lincoln in late 1862-1863. I had never quite thought through his situation two years into the War as you just did. During this time, I agree with your expedient politician judgement. However, about two years ago, I developed a chronological list of Lincoln's quotes on slavery from his earliest quote on slavery that I found,

"... when they [slaveowners] remind us of their constitutional rights, I acknowledge them, not grudgingly but fully and fairly; and I would give them any legislation for the claiming of their fugitives." ~ Lincoln, speaking in support of the Fugitive Slave Act of 1850."

. . . and concluded that during the 1850s, his position on slavery seemed to have evolved quite naturally and consistently from year to year towards a slavery tolerant view - where slavery existed at the time, but not to expand into the territories.

After reading your post, I now think it was only on the eve of War and during the War that he seemed to take more politically expedient positions, sometimes contradictory, on slavery - due in part no doubt to the very real pressures you so accurately describe.

Although I am not personally a student of the Lincoln - Douglas debates of 1858, from what I have read, it is my feeling that Lincoln's position during the debates was consistent with my own view of Lincoln's slavaery predisposition just described.

So, Doyle, might Lincoln have embraced both viewpoints at different times as expressed in my earlier post?