Doyle, short of reading Meade's own words, I think that is about as clear an explanation as I am aware of - you have done a superb job of describing Meade's decision criterio on July 4th. As in every case of this sort, however, it remains to wonder how much of what you so clearly describe, was known to Lincoln when he expressed his own disappointment with Meade for not having pursued the ANV. On that, I found at

http://webpages.charter.net/lincolnbooks/Forum.html the following quote,

"Lincoln's assessment of Meade's lack of movement on the Confederate army is the subject of the final essay of the book, "Abraham Lincoln, Puppet Master: The President and General George Gordon Meade, an Evolving Commander in Chief" by Frank Williams. Williams contends that Lincoln's disappointment in Meade was unfair. Meade, the author states, was in a better position to judge the condition of his army and its ability to pursue the Confederates. Meade had in fact drawn up a plan to follow the rebels, but could not implement it before Lee crossed the Potomac River. To further confound the general in the field, there were conflicting messages from Gen. Henry Halleck in Washington. Williams contends that, in time, Lincoln came to accept that Meade's actions were appropriate, and that perhaps the President's expectations were set too high.

You and Williams seem to agree. Yet, we still have no quotation in Meade's words that if we had it I am sure would also agree with your assessment. Thanks, Doyle, for your expert insight.