Jamie, emancipation of the slaves may have been the missing key to win the recognition of Europe which you clearly show was crucial, and which might have actually ensured victory exactly as you spell it out. God knows Davis never quit trying to gain that important foreign recognition, so he obviously knew it was vital, but he just could not bear to do the one thing that would have earned it... Thus a choice was made by the CSA leadership during the war, emancipation or independence. ... and independence lost.