Your points are well made. There are editorials in the few remaining Texas newspapers of the period that periodically address this issue of disaffection. Many of these luke-warm Confederates were taken by conscription. I've been reading the log books of the Union blockaders regarding the number of deserters. Many were foreign born and they seemed to come in groups. On the Rio Grande there are Union reports of refugees in numbers from dozens to hundreds. On the other hand, many of those foreign born Texans had critical manufacturing skills and turn up in descriptions of Texan attempts to set up domestic industries during the war. The Union commanders had a right to be nervous. A guerilla war in Texas would have been just as ugly as Missouri. The good thing is that by the end of the war very few wanted to fight that kind of campaign.