If he really was on "an old plow horse," as you indicated, he wouldn't have stood much chance against the guerrillas, as well as they were mounted and armed. However, all of Johnston's men were indifferently mounted, so that may not have been a factor in the escape of your ancestor. He may just have been in the right place at the right time to escape the fate of the others, or he hoofed it and hid or outran the killers. Pretending to be dead was not a solution for his enemies, as they had already seen that trick tried several times before. The guerrillas chased and killed the Federals right up to town and such from what I have read. I seem to recall from reading about Centralia (perhaps in this forum), that a detail of the unit was left behind in the village of Centralia for some reason when the rest went out to battle the bushwhackers. A number of Johnston's men did manage to escape, of course, including some of the horse holders.
So, you see there were several ways your ancestor could have escaped sure death that day. I rather doubt you are going to be able to determine how the man actually did manage to escape without more specific information. As you say, I haven't researched this topic yet this year, but I cannot see how I could determine this for you. As my father-in-law (of a Confederate family) says to me "you weren't there, so you can't know what happened." How true. There are limits to what we can do.
Bruce Nichols