Therein would be my contention that the Political "spark" that would ignite a second War between the U.S.A. and C.S.A. would be the question of borders between Arizona and California. Or Arizona, or New Mexico, with either Nevada or Colorado to the north.
I do see an allience with either, or both England and France, Especially France since they were the closest to the Confederate States with holdings in Mexico under Maximillian.