We'll never know. But I believe the Southern people were better than that. As president elect he could have traveled to a major Southern city without much danger. They didn't know him and the writings I've seen suggest they didn't hate him or like him prior to the war. Many had a wait and see attitude. Any mayor or governor would have fallen all over himself for an offical visit by a president-elect. Jefferson Davis traveled throughout Maine, Massachusetts and New York and made speeches to large crowds with good results in 1858. I don't see why Lincoln would not have met with the same courtesy especially if he made a special trip to South Carolina. Its recognition the South was looking for. From December to March 1861, the South was madder at Buchannon than with Lincoln.

Speeches made my Jefferson Davis in New England.

On Fourth of July, 1858, at Sea.
At Serenade, at Portland, Maine.
At Portland Convention, Maine.
At Belfast Encampment, Maine.
At Belfast Banquet, Maine.
At Portland Meeting, Maine.
At Fair at Augusta, Maine.
At Faneuil Hall, Boston.
At New York Meeting.

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David Upton