I think you've hit on the gist of the matter. For an excellent on line read of Lincoln and his border state philosophy see http://www.historycooperative.org/journals/jala/13/gienapp.html

I think you will understand how differently things could have turned out if Blair had kept his nose out of it and let Lincoln be in charge. Many of the actions by Blair and company were taken and then presented to Lincoln as "see what we've done for you, Mr. President" and if Lincoln's Little Po Beep policy in Kentucky could have been extended to Missouri it would have been a different war indeed.

And we haven't even touched on the damage Fremont did in 100 days as Commander of the West....

John R